It's not horrible. I little wide in front, but I doubt it crashes down on his withers when you're in it, does it?
The saddle pad suggest two things. One is bridging. See how there are dirt marks in the front and back, but none in the middle? That suggests that the saddle isn't making contact with the horse's back in the middle. This will result in lots of front to back saddle movement and quickly create soreness where the back of the saddle sits, so it's easy enough to verify by seeing if he reacts to any contact in that spot. The other does confirm that the gullet is a tad too wide since there's very little dirt under the flaps of the saddle. In the pics, it looks like the saddle has been placed a little too far forward which will work in your favor. Pushing it back will give it a little more lift. It's very tricky with horses like yours who has a combo of high withers and broad back. Ideally you want it to sit 2 to 3 fingers behind the shoulder blade.
For the pads, either of the last two will help bring it up a bit in front. The Mattes is slightly better, but that one's not cheap. Anything with the thicker sheepskin form to it will fill out his shoulders a little and give the saddle a little more to sit on. Thinline makes a similar pad if you want to check theirs out too. Definitely not the riser pad. That will lift the saddle in back which is the opposite of what you want.
You just have to see your distance...you don't have to like it.