Here are the pictures. Do you think it fits him alright? Do you think a half pad will help if it doesnt?
The front of the saddle does not fit at all.
The angle of the tree points is too wide. Notice how the panels going down his shoulder touch at the very top then gap ever wider as you go down.
The tree being too wide, plus what seems like not enough flocking, then lets the saddle sit too low on him. There is virtually no vertical clearance in the gullet right above the withers. With the saddle just sitting on the horse without pad or girth (like you have it) there should be no less than tree and no more than four fingers between the top of the withers and the bottom of the gullet. Once girthed and mounted, the same check should fit two to three fingers in there. A pad with shims (Fleeceworks, Mattes, Thinline) might make it work but there are no guarantees until you try it.
On a positive note, it seems that you have good contact on the panels from front to back and the saddle appears to be fairly level. Of course, I can't be absolutely sure that there is no bridging unless I look down the gullet and run my hand between the panels and his back.
That's all based on what a saddle fitter taught me a couple of days ago and what I see here. But I'm no pro so I suggest you get a pro to help. She came because I had a very similar problem (not enough wither clearance). She adjusted the tree width (easily done with simple tools on my saddle) and reflocked the panels and now the saddle fits beautifully without resorting to shims, thicks pads, or any other crutches.
If you google society of master saddlers you can start looking for one that covers your area. You will have to call and be placed on their schedule for the next time they are in your area if you don't have one that lives within easy driving distance.