Natural horsemanship is not the horse picking the rider. Natural horsemanship is working with a horse using horse's instincts and body language. It's communicating with your horse like a horse knows.
I think Natural horsemanship trainers are just fine. I mean no one guarantees *your horse will love your* but it teaches people how to deal with their horse's using good methods. I don't know I know I'd be pretty lost without my pat parelli book. It was a good smack in the face because I am around people that say "if your horse tosses it's head yank it in the mouth." so that's what I did. Then I saw Pat Parelli. I think it's kind of like that will lots of trainers. I mean it's not just natural horsemanship. I have books on western pleasure, reining, hunter jumpers and they are all like "train your horse this way and your out come will be this". I'm glad I have my pat parelli stuff so I'm not spending loads on lessons. I think the horse training industry may be going down though like you said. Now trainers have to be really good or else they aren't going to make any money.
I also think it's how people learn too. I'd rather not send my horse to a trainer and get the horse trained. I'd like to watch someone do it and do it myself. I'm quite a visual learner and I like doing things myself. I wouldn't consider myself a trainer because I've worked with problem horses and such but I don't think that nessecarily starting colts and the amount of colts you start is what makes you a trainer. I believe it's how you work with them and what the finished product turns out to be.