If every horse is the last 10 generations on a mares papers was a bay with a blaze...
.. and every horse for the last 9 generations on the stallions papers was a bay with a blaze, then if you bred the two together would the chances of the resulting foal being bay with a blaze 100%?
(PS: This is a metaphorical question. Both horses, the stallion and the mare do exist, but there are no plans to breed to two. Its purely metaphorical, because I was wondering about genetics and stuff so... yeah.)
Can anyone think of any two horses that if you bred them together, you would 100% know what color your foal would be? Aside from like Freisians and stuff, that are only one color throughout the whole breed. I'm just really curious.
There's no way to know 100% unless you know for sure what the horses' DNA says.
Breeding two bays can give you a bay, black, or chestnut foal (or brown if both parents are carriers of At). Bay is the most likely to be produced, though.
As for white markings, they are controlled by pinto genes (only the Overos, as far as I know). Even if the aforementioned generations were all bay with blazes, there is no guarantee that the resulting foal would have a blaze. He could have any variation of white markings, facial or otherwise, depending on what pinto genes his parents have and to what extent they want to express on the foal.
chestnut to chestnut (always chestnut)
Everything else depends on the zygosity of the genetics (ie whether horse has one or two copies of a particular gene). Black to black, you can get black or chestnut, depending on the zygosity of the Extension allele (aka red/black factor)
edit; and even with Friesians you never REALLY know. There is such a thing as a chestnut, or "fox", Friesian, though they are not allowed in the registry and horses that produce one are ejected.
BEP your information on friesians is incorrect. Fox/red friesians can and are registered and the sire/dam are not "ejected" from he registry. If they are purebred they are registered. They just cannot be inspected for star or premium status.
This link has pictures of a fox/red stallion named Iron Man. ronni?s friesians
I stand corrected then.
I was under the impression they weren't allowed in the registry at all, based on some information I had from a Friesian breeder I have been in contact with. Perhaps (as so often is the case!) the rules are different here in Aus... certainly crossbreeding is allowed here and often encouraged, and there are some very very nice crosses because the good Friesians can be used without fear of losing breeding rights for purebreds.
The only time something can be certain if homozygosity is at play (aside from the chestnut/chestnut and cremello/chestnut pairings of course). If one of them is homozygous black and one of them homozygous for agouti, then yes, you'll get a bay. But just having papers to go off, no. If you can look at all a sires get and see he's only ever sired black or bay, you can take a pretty good guess at zygosity sometimes. But that would require numbers of a minimum of 10 or so foals or more. And I'm pulling that number out of my butt! A LOT anyway - if a sire has 100 foals and they're all black or bay, even on red mares, you can pretty definitively state that he's homozygous for black.
I'd still test to make sure though if you're set on a certain color.
What MM said.
Plus the added caveat that if you want a certain colour with a certain markings... buy instead. There are homozygous tobianos running around with no white on them at all. Having a white pattern gene doesn't guarantee any expression of it.
Oh, and by the way, it's theorized that any white on a horse at all that's not the result of scarring, is the result of some white pattern or another. Whether it's one of the pinto patterns, or whether it's a part of the leopard complex, or roan, or something thus far completely undiscovered, the theory goes that if it's not scarring (from injury or fungal infections), it's a white pattern gene.
I get what you're saying blueeyedpony but I'm pretty sure there's never been a homozygous tobiano with NO white whatsoever. A horse with absolutely zero white is likely to be the only type of horse without any pinto pattern. Not for sure of course, but most pinto patterns will display physically albeit sometimes VERY slightly (coronet band, small snip, etc.) unless of course you're also dealing with grey.
That actually intrigues me - can a pinto gene be carried without a single physical trait? Can a horse be splashed white tobiano and not have a single white hair? Color experts? I know we've seen minimal whites but horses with NO white are fairly rare to begin with - what are the chaces they're carrying pinto patterns?
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I have seen photos of a homoz Tobi miniature that had literally not a single white hair on its body. But it was genetically tested T/T, and you can't argue with the genetics. I have also seen photos of a mare that, according to her owners, threw a tobiano foal to a Belgian (thus the tobiano could NOT have come from the stallion). The only white she had on her at all was on her face - NOT a tobiano trait!
It is more than possible for a pinto gene to be carried with no physical appearance of it.
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