COVID-19 - different containment approaches around the world - Page 10 - The Horse Forum
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post #91 of 976 Old 03-08-2020, 09:21 AM
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Something to consider about the statistics for coronavirus is who is being tested. In my area, we are only testing those who come in very ill, so they are needing to be hospitalized. We are not testing those who have minor respiratory illnesses the way we test people for the flu.
So we really don't know if the coronavirus is deadlier than the flu, and most probably it is not. People are not going to their clinic with a cough and then getting a nasal swab for the coronavirus. We don't have very many test kits and are only testing highly suspected cases (travel out of the country or known exposure, plus a respiratory illness).

If we only tested people for flu who were already seriously ill, we would think the mortality rate was much higher. For example, if we admitted four people to the hospital with serious respiratory illnesses, they tested positive for the flu, and then two of them died, the mortality rate would be 50%. The reality is that most people who test positive for the flu do not get hospitalized, and our testing people who are not hospitalized leads to our knowledge about the lower mortality rates of flu.
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post #92 of 976 Old 03-08-2020, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by gottatrot View Post
Something to consider about the statistics for coronavirus is who is being tested. In my area, we are only testing those who come in very ill, so they are needing to be hospitalized. We are not testing those who have minor respiratory illnesses the way we test people for the flu.
So we really don't know if the coronavirus is deadlier than the flu, and most probably it is not. People are not going to their clinic with a cough and then getting a nasal swab for the coronavirus. We don't have very many test kits and are only testing highly suspected cases (travel out of the country or known exposure, plus a respiratory illness).

If we only tested people for flu who were already seriously ill, we would think the mortality rate was much higher. For example, if we admitted four people to the hospital with serious respiratory illnesses, they tested positive for the flu, and then two of them died, the mortality rate would be 50%. The reality is that most people who test positive for the flu do not get hospitalized, and our testing people who are not hospitalized leads to our knowledge about the lower mortality rates of flu.
This is an excellent point, related to statistics. But lets take it one step further; would it be better to test everyone, as done in the European countries, to get more accurate data and also to identify as many cases as possible?

Without accurate data, including those who have mild cases not needing treatment, how can we effect appropriate strategies for prevention and treatment?
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post #93 of 976 Old 03-08-2020, 09:49 PM
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Originally Posted by loosie View Post
Yes, it's a worry for 'compromised' bodies, but the economic effects and the panic strike me as the the most scary. Stock market's taken a plunge, there are already businesses going bust because they can't get supplies or such, or Asian businesses/workers who can't get custom.
Loosie, I think you have it in a nutshell. The panic is going to kill more than Covid does. I just had dinner at the Golden Dragon tonight, happy to report they're doing a good business regardless. It's inconvenient to not be able find antiseptic wipes at the stores, inconvenient to not be able to find the N95 or N99 masks, inconvenient to not be able to find hand sanitizer, but just about everything boils down to "Wash your hands.". I carry wipes in my purse and a spray sanitizer, and I've made use of both since places that normally have those things out, have had nothing. If nothing else, I'll mix up a dilute bleach solution and carry a small bottle of the and a packet of Kleenex.

Theses are all precautions we should be taking during the Flu & Cold season anyhow. It's not a brand new thing, Dr's and CDC preach this stuff every year, not just because Covid has reared its ugly head.
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post #94 of 976 Old 03-08-2020, 10:20 PM
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Our church leaders are telling us to have at least ,a two week supply of food storage. We do a two months worth of groceries when we go. Only items we need in-between shopping trips is milk and eggs.


Hubby and I went grocery shopping this weekend. Business as usual at stores no lack of hand sanitizers, no lack of toilet paper.

People up here aren't in a panic they are using commen sense. Washing hands a lot. Sanitizing hand and grocery basket handles before touching.

Don't touch face eyes mouth until you've washed hands. I stocked up on alfalfa cubes so no feed store runs for 3 months.

I pretty much stay home so very little contact with other people. My husband drives truck so minimal contact with people also. He Carry's hand sanitizer with him.

I have plenty of hand sanitizers and disinfectant wipes on hand,so I have no worry about not beable to find buy it.

It's something I'm always stocked up on having kids it's a have to have, in flu season.
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post #95 of 976 Old 03-08-2020, 11:04 PM
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There is no hand sanitizer in the stores here, no rubbing alcohol either. No masks, very few gloves.

People are running to the ED with any hint of a cough. They are running scared...rumors of cases at the hospital, have employees agitated.

IMO the restaurants will suffer, as we have many, many restaurants in our small town, and people are avoiding eating out. That will mean cutting staff, cutting hours, maybe even closing some.
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post #96 of 976 Old 03-08-2020, 11:10 PM
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@AnitaAnne - That's so sad.
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post #97 of 976 Old 03-08-2020, 11:49 PM
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I went shopping today. Not a lot of folks out, but some. No feeling of 'panic'. But, people are not going out as much. Makes for good traffic conditions!



But, it's amazing that folks are panicking in areas like the Southeast, where so few cases have been deadly, so far.
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post #98 of 976 Old 03-09-2020, 03:04 AM
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South Korea has been testing tens of thousands of people, so probably have a better idea of the mortality rate of the coronavirus. They have had 44 deaths out of 6,767 cases which would be a fatality rate of 0.7%.

I have heard a prediction from a doctor that with more testing the U.S. mortality rate will most likely end up around 0.1% to 0.5%, similar to the flu and other viruses.

I find it interesting that only something like 40% of adults get a flu vaccine, even though this is an intervention that can be taken against a virus that has a similar mortality rate to the coronavirus. Apparently we only worry about things that can kill us when we first learn about them. It seems many people weren't even too worried about washing their hands or using hand sanitizer during shopping trips before this outbreak, despite the many viruses we have in public environments.
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post #99 of 976 Old 03-09-2020, 03:08 AM
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I can't wait for the vaccine!
I'm a thinking about how to take advantage of some screamin' deals on travel and such. Yes, I'm 62, overweight and have mild asthma. I also have the immune system of a mule, and an attitude to boot!
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post #100 of 976 Old 03-09-2020, 05:06 AM
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Originally Posted by rambo99 View Post
Our church leaders are telling us to have at least ,a two week supply of food storage.
Yeah, I find this sort of thing curious, as, well... nothing says unconditional faith like your church leaders inducing such worry!
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