COVID-19 - different containment approaches around the world - Page 144 - The Horse Forum
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post #1431 of 1440 Old 04-28-2020, 06:11 PM
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Meh, hes extrapolating numbers from the tested to the entire population. However, the people which were tested were selected for testing because they had reason to be selected - they were either sick or were in contact. In statistics speak- this sample is not representative of the population. I am not saying he is wrong - just that he cannot use the tested sample and extrapolate - the sample would need to be random and stratified to be representative. This is like saying most customers that I see at my make up shop are women so most people out there must be women. Likewise, most people who came to him precisely because they were sick.

Again, I am not saying that he is wrong, just that the argument he is making is scientifically wrong.

This is a real world example: a relative of mine works in a public hospital in Africa. Four out of five patients she sees are HIV positive. Not because everyone out there is HIV positive or because she is an HIV specialist but because people with HIV tend to get sick a lot. It called a self-selecting sample. The true HIV rate within that country is one in five people in the working population and lower overall.
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post #1432 of 1440 Old 04-28-2020, 06:23 PM
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post #1433 of 1440 Old 04-28-2020, 06:46 PM
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Just another thought, this doctor is citing samples which range between 5% and 35% positive of the tested. In statistics this is a huge, huge range. Any intelligent person, never mind a doctor would have a major problem with that situation as far as representativeness of the sample goes.
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post #1434 of 1440 Old 04-28-2020, 07:50 PM
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Hi, Italian here, precisely from one of the most affected regions in the north. The situation is dramatic, they finally announced the phase 2 yesterday but it seems like not much will change. Stores should re open in June such as restaurants and bars. No idea about the borders, thing that actually concerns me because my boyfriend lives abroad. Some members of my family were tested positive and my mother was even hospitalized. It was hard, but she's feeling way better now. It's crazy to see this whole thing happen in front of our eyes

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post #1435 of 1440 Old 04-29-2020, 01:08 PM
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Slovakia here again. We are either lucky or it hasnt started properly yet.

Current statistics say:
81338 people tested,
1391 positive,
22 dead,
484 recovered,
180 people hospitalised (53 with covid or 127 with covid symptoms avaiting testing, none on ventilation).

We are slowly starting to open non-essential shops but they are under strict instructions that they need to follow (opening hours, number of customers inside, desinfection/gloves...). For almost 2 months now everyone needed to wear masks outside, schools have been closed, shopping centers also closed, no gatherings allowed at all, no traveling abroad - all those rules still apply.

We are now testing more people and interestingly if you want to be sure, you can get tested by private laboratories. Of course you need to pay (70 euro) but the fact that you can do that means that more and more people are getting tested either because they have to or because they can (we are now at around 5k tests daily).
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post #1436 of 1440 Old 04-29-2020, 02:47 PM
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We're strongly encouraged' to open even though it's not safe, the next county over is one of the highest growing hot-spots for covid in the country, our building is too small to allow for proper social distancing, we don't have a reliable supply chain of needed sanitizing products, toilet paper, PPE, and the required hand sanitizer and wipes for each person in the door to use much less the staff to clean everything touched after every person in the door, and we can 'suggest' but not require safety precautions like social distancing and masks. People were wearing them a couple of weeks ago, but now are not. I feel like the safety of myself and my employees is being thrown to the wolves.

And for those wondering, yes, this definitely infects children. A Tyson meat plant nearby is testing every employee and their families. As of yesterday, the first day of testing, nearly 30 children have tested positive--- about half are symptomatic, half are asymptomatic so far. And once it became known that children were included in the cases at relatively high numbers, their county clamped down and is now no longer releasing the ages of anyone testing positive 'to avoid panicking the public and affecting new-hire rates' now that it has been decided it's illegal to close a meat plant due to covid among the workers. So we now don't know how many of those still being tested this week are workers and how many are families/kids.
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Last edited by TaMMa89; 04-30-2020 at 08:04 AM. Reason: Removed political content
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post #1437 of 1440 Old 04-29-2020, 04:25 PM
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A very good article, written by two statesmen in my state, made the astute point that the BEST economic plan is to very, very conservative on opening business . IT is better, in the long run, to delay openning (to act on the side of caution) because what REALLY matters for economic health is consumer confidence.


If people do not FEEL safe, they will not come out to buy/spend. If there is a rebound in the virus, all the confidence that was slowly built by the first lengthy shutdown will be utterly lost, and people will fear that even a second shutdown will do nothing for them. Fear will become more rampant, and people will be afraid to go out and buy even when the next wave subsides.


Additionally, every illness that requires hospitalization costs the economy beaucoup bucks. So, openning too soon, causing another wave, COSTS the economy more than is gained by openning soon.


The best thing for the economy would be for the Federal Government to take the reins , begin massive support of developmet of testing, and vaccine research. The faster the illness can be contained, and / or treated better, the faster REAL consumer confidence will return, and consumer confidence is absolute key to a healthy economy.

Last edited by TaMMa89; 04-30-2020 at 08:07 AM. Reason: Removed political reference
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post #1438 of 1440 Old 04-29-2020, 04:37 PM
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I totally agree that consumer confidence is the key to a healthy economy, coupled with people who aren't saddled with huge medical bills or dead.... dead people don't spend money. Sick people cost money. I don't see why our country doesn't seem to realize that opening too soon will be more catastrophic than too late, and a large spike in illness/death would tank the economy even more and slow its recovery far longer than extending closures for awhile, even if it means paying every citizen deemed non-essential to stay home. Essential and frontline workers are safer if everyone else is home and going out only for necessities, too.

Last edited by TaMMa89; 04-30-2020 at 08:28 AM. Reason: Removed political content
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post #1439 of 1440 Old 04-29-2020, 11:24 PM
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CLOSED for review. Wandering off topic.




EDIT: some new political content has been removed from this thread. The thread will remain closed until we've decided what to do with it, since it has taken political turn again, after few mod notes and warnings. People who need to be contacted (for example for sharing political content) will be contacted later, once the Moderating Team has made some more permanent or at least long-lasting decisions about this thread.
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Last edited by TaMMa89; 04-30-2020 at 09:12 AM.
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post #1440 of 1440 Old 05-02-2020, 09:54 AM
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This thread is closing permanently unless the moderation team can be convinced to reopen in a private discussion via a Talk to the Team Privately thread..


The decision to remove political based discussions (N&P) was not made lightly.
This thread was allowed as a space to share and moderated when politics crept in.
At this point the thread has turned political in nature. That is the nature of the beast. Due to the direction the thread has taken it will remain closed as there are sufficient alternate locations for the politics to be discussed.


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