COVID-19 - different containment approaches around the world - Page 86 - The Horse Forum
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post #851 of 1440 Old 03-27-2020, 11:20 PM
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I apologize if this is political.


Even now, I am not too sure which approach is better.

We (Serbia) seem to be in good shape. We went into lockdown when there were less than fifty cases. People over 65 have been in full lockdown for nine days. Our average age is below 65. We are testing more, but finding less at the moment. The doctors are still able to trace more than 95% of infection routes which is amazing. (All of this might change rather fast and doctors have been clearly stating the fact). Tomorrow they are starting aggressive testing on all known contacts and their contacts regardless of symptoms and they will be putting even asymptomatic patients in mandatory quarantine at temporary hospitals.

However, what happens afterwards, if we beat it?

Nobody has a plan. A vaccine is at least a year and a half away. We canít stay in lockdown for that long - weíll starve. So how do we get out of lockdown? Do they release us county by county so that we stagger the onslaught on hospitals? That will take a very long time as well. Do we lock the borders for two years? Mandatory quarantine on entry? I really donít know.

One thing I know is that Iím grateful I donít have to make these decisions.

One country specific issue we have here is that a lot of Serbs have emigrated abroad. 300.000 of those people crammed back into the country right before we closed the borders. Most of them from affected areas because they lost their jobs there. Just shows you how each country has these very specific epidemiological issues. There canít be one perfect approach for all. A mandatory quarantine away from home in some mass warehouse for asymptomatic people and people with light symptoms is very unlikely to happen in the States or Western Europe. Those people simply wouldnít allow their government to take so much control, virus or no virus.
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post #852 of 1440 Old 03-27-2020, 11:33 PM
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I am baffled by this whole discussion of mask fear. What??

At the animal hospital, we are not allowed to get anywhere near owners or touch them or their stuff at all. Newest protocol addition is we are not allowed to touch their paperwork or bring it inside - They need to email us copies. Even with all that precaution about not getting close or touching, we are still REQUIRED to wear masks and gloves at ALL TIMES when we go out into the parking lot for curbside appointments and while we are handling their animals inside. We treat their animals with infectious caution like any other potentially infected surface that multiple other people have touched.

No one has expressed any fear or complained at all. They thank us for taking such extensive precautions to protect everyone's safety, especially among the retired population whose pets are in frequently. I cannot count the number of times today people have cut me off mid-sentence and said "You don't need to explain, I understand!! Thank you for being so safe!" while I am giving our required spiel about "We can't get near you, we will be masked and gloved, you can't come inside the building" etc etc. I think it might help if human healthcare workers also took a few seconds to explain, so that perhaps the fear would be lessened and instead turned into appreciation.

I cannot believe hospitals and healthcare professionals, of all places and people, are the ones saying "no masks." Absolutely ridiculous. These are the people who are supposed to keep us safe. At least I can tell you the vets are taking this very seriously.
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post #853 of 1440 Old 03-28-2020, 12:21 AM
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My guess is that in Florida the economy is SO dependent on tourism that any news that would frighten people away was surpressed. Unfortunately, I believe Miami will experience a total nightmare scenario in about 2 weeks.


This is both so fast moving that people don't have a lot of time to prepare, and also moves slow enough that people can fool themselves into thinking it won't come.


It reminds me of the story of the man with a small pond in his garden. Every day he would wander down to admire his garden pond, and one day he noticed a dozen or so gorgeous lilly pads, with green leaves and bright blossoms, on the surface. "oh, how lovely!" he thought.


the next day there were several dozen pads. "Even prettier!". The next day an eighth of the pond's entire surface was covered! "wow, they are so pretty!, but, it does block out the sun for the fish. perhaps I should trim some of them" . . .



next day the pond is 1/4 covered.


"I'd better do some trimming back on those . . . tomorrow"

the next day, he looked at his pond, and realized he had ONE day to save it.
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post #854 of 1440 Old 03-28-2020, 06:18 AM Thread Starter
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@Horsef , your question about future approaches reminded me of this NYTimes article by an oncologist, biostatistician and epidemiologist (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/o...-effect.html):


"The irony of successful social distancing is that fewer will develop immunity. That means that social distancing 2.0, 3.0 and, who knows, maybe even 4.0 will very likely have to occur.

The next round of social distancing will be activated more rapidly, because officials ó and the public ó will be more prepared. It should also be shorter, because we can assume that most of the people who were initially infected are likely to be immune next time around. But it will still disrupt peopleís lives and the economy. We will still have canceled conferences and sporting events. People will not frequent restaurants and will not travel. The service industry will be severely curtailed. And itís going to happen again and again.

Maybe the best analogy is pumping a carís brakes on an icy road. Either doing nothing or slamming on the brakes leads to an accident. So we pump the brakes ó pushing on the brakes, then easing up, and then applying them again ó and after three or four times we slow down enough to stop."
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post #855 of 1440 Old 03-28-2020, 06:37 AM
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What concerns me also is that this is unlikely to be the only new virus that comes about in the next few years. What will we learn from this? Will fear of disease begin to be a way of life for everyone in the world? It is interesting to think about whether preserving a high population will be better in the long run or if it will mean our quality of life will become worse and worse.
I suppose at some point it could become no decision at all. If our population gets too high, it will probably give viruses more chances to emerge and mutate, and most likely we won't be able to combat some of them.

Not trying to be callus but I am someone who likes to think about all aspects of a problem. We see it from the side of fear for our own death or the death of loved ones. There are other sides also that become apparent if all emotions are removed.
I am not as concerned about the long term effects of this virus on our quality of life, because they believe a single vaccine will most likely be able to provide lifetime immunity. However, this is only one virus and many more will soon emerge. What if a more deadly virus comes out that can mutate rapidly like the flu or even more rapidly? Then vaccines will not be as helpful and people may want us to live in social isolation more permanently.
Not trying to scare anyone, just thinking.

I am wondering how these things will be decided. Will we get a vote on whether we would rather risk lives or live with a very poor quality of life? I am certain there would be no consensus. Just like with cancer, some people want to have a shorter life with more quality, while other would prefer aggressive treatments that make their life rather miserable so they can live longer.
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post #856 of 1440 Old 03-28-2020, 06:55 AM
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@Spanish Rider That is going to cost a LOT of money and quite a few countries cannot afford it. For my country it wouldnít be an ethics question, we just wouldnít have the money for a second round in the next few years. Just to give you an idea, our average salary is 350Eur and we have high unemployment.

Another issue, especially in less developed countries, is that these are prime conditions for totalitarian systems to take hold and entrench themselves deeply. That whole argument by the NRA that they want to have means to defend themselves against the government always used to give me a bit of an uneasy feeling. I guess this is one of those far fetched scenarios. I am guessing that just the threat of all those privately owned guns is enough to be a serious deterrent to wanna-be despots.

What a mess, on all counts.
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post #857 of 1440 Old 03-28-2020, 07:23 AM
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@gottatrot I think it will resolve itself because there will not be enough money - at least in a lot of places.
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post #858 of 1440 Old 03-28-2020, 07:26 AM
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@gottatrot If you look at Africa, living with deadly diseases is their normal. Life carries on. People get married, have kids, throw parties, earn a living.
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post #859 of 1440 Old 03-28-2020, 07:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnitaAnne View Post
Oregon: Do As You're Told

While many organizations are supporting healthcare workers objecting to being placed in harm's way, some seem to be coming out in support of employers.

The Oregon State Board of Nursing, noting that it was receiving reports of nurses refusing to accept patient assignments if facilities were following Oregon Health Authority guidance only, said that was unacceptable. "Nurses cannot refuse an assignment solely because the employer is utilizing OHA guidelines rather than WHO or CDC guidelines," said the board in a position statement.
They clarified their statement after pushback:
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post #860 of 1440 Old 03-28-2020, 07:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Horsef View Post
@gottatrot If you look at Africa, living with deadly diseases is their normal. Life carries on. People get married, have kids, throw parties, earn a living.
Sad but true.
Maybe we will just get very good at not infecting each other. If people didn't cough, sneeze or wipe their secretions everywhere they go then there would be no pandemic.
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