Covid-19 facts & current stats, policies... - The Horse Forum
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post #1 of 173 Old 03-15-2020, 11:11 PM Thread Starter
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Covid-19 facts & current stats, policies...

This thread is for the facts about the disease & what is going on in the world. As the very informative https://www.horseforum.com/general-o...post1970845815 thread has also got... so much besides in it, this should be a 'just to the point' thread.

Please try to keep to VERIFIED FACTS wherever possible (acknowledging it's not always able, given the lack of testing, lack of clinical studies, etc). If not verified, please try to keep to objective info. IOW, we should try to minimise all the media/gov't noises, anecdotes, rumours, etc.

Whether or not it's verified, please state the source/reason for your belief in it. Eg. your qualifications/field, WHO information, studies read, stats, whatever.

Please state where you are in the world, what your current gov't/area policies are and the state of the disease in your area.

Please keep discussion to the facts where possible & avoid going off on tangents... which I myself am usually so good at doing in threads!

Fire away!
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post #2 of 173 Old 03-16-2020, 12:16 AM
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This article in Infection Control Today cites a study about how some health care workers wearing no protective equipment did not contract the disease from a patient.

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...e-great-feared
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post #3 of 173 Old 03-16-2020, 01:00 AM
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https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/0...ta-grows-to-21

Here's the link to latest in MN on what's going on here. I'm way North of where cases have been confirmed. No cases confirmed in my county yet.

I read somewhere all schools will be closing for two weeks in MN. Think that's effective starting tomorrow.
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post #4 of 173 Old 03-16-2020, 05:07 AM Thread Starter
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C/o @Spanish Rider ...

Testing: At this point, testing is old news in Europe. In 5-10 days time, in many areas (I have only been monitoring Massachusetts), testing will become SUPERFLUOUS and OBSOLETE. Those with suspected symptoms will be told to self-quarantine. Those with fever will be prescribed paracetamol/Tylenol, fluids and lots of TV/a good book. You will be told NOT TO GO TO THE HOSPITAL unless you have dyspnea/chest pain.

In 5-10 days time, testing will only be used for patients with pneumonia in order to identify the pathogen and treat accordingly. Forget about the testing. Only the most serious cases need it, and hospitals need the kits.


Confinement: Everyone needs to be prepared to confine for several weeks, if not months. In 5-10 days time, only essential workers will be allowed on the streets. Offices will be closed, banks will be closed, workers will be sent home. You Will still be able to go to the supermarket and pharmacy. In certain cities, you might be lucky enough to be able to walk your dog. Stop worrying about your rent, your mortgage, your car payment. If you are healthy, your family is healthy, your animals are healthy and you have enough food to feed them all, DING, DING, DING, you're a pandemic winner!!!


Children, teens and youth are asymptomatic carriers.


Dry cough is a fallacy. There are many patients with sputum/wet cough.


The death rate among those over the age of 60 is 6%. (Oxford study)


Infected healthcare professionals are a given. If they are young, they will not know they are infected. The older ones, with the constant exposure to high viral loads, exhaustion and any morbidities, will have increased risk of death.


Mean viral shedding in survivors is 20 days, so the 15-day quarantine is not long enough. (Wuhan study in The Lancet published on the 11th)


Hypertension and systemic corticosteroid use are associated with death. (same study as above)


Incubation before presentation of symptoms can be up to 27 days.


Fever may not appear until days 2-8
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post #5 of 173 Old 03-16-2020, 06:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loosie View Post
Mean viral shedding in survivors is 20 days, so the 15-day quarantine is not long enough. (Wuhan study in The Lancet published on the 11th)
There is conflicting information on this.
From another study: Their results were that although people continue to shed the virus, it is not infectious after about ten days.
Quote:
Importantly, the scientists could not grow viruses from throat swabs or sputum specimens after day 8 of illness from people who had mild infections.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/09/...covery-begins/
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post #6 of 173 Old 03-16-2020, 09:56 AM
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Facts for where I am in Alberta Canada: just read an article that they are seeing community spread of the disease. Folks who have it have not traveled or been in contact with anyone who has recently traveled.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canad...0bp?li=AAggNb9

Folks who have just returned from out of the country must abide by a 14 day quarantine. I do hope that people actually follow this.

Last night, radio announcement from our province that all schools, universities, colleges and daycares are now closed. Teachers are still going to the schools, however it sounded as though if the schools closed they would remain closed until September.

It has been noted that there are 56 cases of COVID-19 in Alberta with 17 of them just confirmed in 2 days.
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post #7 of 173 Old 03-17-2020, 02:28 AM Thread Starter
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From Spanish Rider;

Day 8 since the first cases in my province, Day 5 of our home lockdown, Day 3 of State of Alarm:

Reported cases (only reliable data on those being treated) jumped by more than 1,000 cases in Spain yesterday.

Total of 9,191 cases, 40% requiring hospitalization.

Death rate is 3% (again, little or no data on mildest cases self-quarantining or asymptomatic cases).

Government projects an exponential increase of cases over the next 10 days.

State of Alarm will be maintained for more than 15 days.


Italy: 24,603 known infected, 1,809 known deaths, 2,335 known cures
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post #8 of 173 Old 03-17-2020, 03:42 AM Thread Starter
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ABC interview with Dr Norman Swan in Australia - medical expert, NOT politician.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-...zqaQXX7x__8DXc
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post #9 of 173 Old 03-17-2020, 04:04 AM Thread Starter
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post #10 of 173 Old 03-17-2020, 04:17 AM Thread Starter
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From Spanish Rider yesterday;
Day 3 of confinement:

Reports from Madrid are that all ICUs are full. Colleagues in Madrid and Toledo report that testing is no longer being done and all patients are being considered positive for C-19. Testing is only being done for patients with pneumonia to confirm C-19 before administering antivirals and directed therapies. Reports of 'dry cough' are a fallacy; all types of cough are being seen.

The President has authorized the army to perform 'policing functions'.

No one allowed on the streets. Only to go to hospital, supermarket or gas station, or those who are 'essential workers' (police, fire, medical staff, truckers, sanitation, supermarket/gas station workers and anyone associated with production and supply chain of food, medicines, etc.).
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