I Intended to post sooner, got busy at work. Finally got some time, so... Florida Derby first.
(1) Hidden Scroll - my thought on him hasn't changed. Love this colt and his maiden win. His last race I personally believe was jockey error. Pushing him to keep the lead, in such fast quarter times. Obviously the trainer feels that was a bad ride, as he has opted for a different jockey. He is my winning pick. By the way, the colt he went such fast fractions with, Gladiator King, went on to win his next graded stakes by 4 1/2 lengths. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...tcheson-stakes
(2) Current - 6 races lifetime, 2 wins, 2 third, 2 off the board. Can't ever count out a Pletcher horse, but likely not a win contender. Has raced on both turf and dirt, seems like Pletcher is trying to figure out where he excells. A user for me in the top 4 or 5 but no more.
(3) Harvey Wallbanger - has 5 starts, 2 first, 3 second. Took him 4 starts to break his maiden, he was second three times. Then he won the Holy Bull Stakes back in February. McPeek is a good trainer, can't count his colt out of the top 4 or 5, but again I don't like him to win.
(4) Bourbon War - 4 starts, 2 first,1 second, 1 fourth. Came in a strong closing second in the Fountain of Youth, I think he will like the added distance. A few more strides and he would have caught the win in the FoY, imo. Top 3 finish in this race.
(5) Everfast - 8 starts, 1 first, second, and third. The other 5 starts were off the board. He finished 2nd this year in the Holy Bull, but 8th in the Fountain of Youth. Probably not a contender in the top 4 or 5.
(6) Hard Belle - 13 starts, 1 first, second, and third. Very heavily raced. Not on my list for top 4 or 5.
(7) Maximum Security - 3 starts, 3 wins lifetime. All at Gulfstream Park. Not against this level of competition thought. Not a win contender, but top 4 finisher imo. Like seeing the hometown horses take on the big guys.
(8) Bodexpress - 4 starts, 2 second, no wins yet. Another who has raced exclusively at Gulfstream Park tracks. In this race, probably not a top 4 or 5 finish.
(9) Code of Honor - 4 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 fourth. First in the Fountain of Youth, but almost lost to Bourbon War. Top 4 or 5 for sure, especially with Velasquez up.
(10) Union's Destiny - 4 starts, 1 first, second and third. Was 6th in the Fountain of Youth. Not in my list for top 4 or 5.
(11) Garter and tie - 8 starts, 2 first, second and third. Was 6th in the Holy Bull. Not in my top 5.
To sum it up... 1 to win, also 4,7,9, and maybe throw in 2 or 3 to round out the top 5.