2019 Road To The Kentucky Derby - Page 12 - The Horse Forum
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post #111 of 263 Old 03-24-2019, 10:47 PM Thread Starter
Green Broke
 
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His races just have come back to not be key. That's a part of handicapping that is one of those hidden type things. More so in lower level in day to day racing but at times with the top level.

That's what is fun and profitable. Finding a horse that ran a pretty ho hum 3rd or 4th. But some digging turns up the top two won again stepping up next out. One he beat came back to win next out. But today is his chance and being overlooked.
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post #112 of 263 Old 03-26-2019, 11:43 AM Thread Starter
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Can't think of Derby time with him, https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...-meadow-stable
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post #113 of 263 Old 03-28-2019, 12:44 PM Thread Starter
Green Broke
 
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The Florida Derby

1)Hidden Scroll Jockey Javier Castellano Trainer Bill Mott 5/2

2)Current Jockey Manuel Franco Trainer Todd Pletcher 15/1

3)Harvey Wallbanger Jockey Brian Hernandez Trainer Ken McPeek 15/1

4)Bourbon War Jockey Irad Ortiz Trainer Mark Henning 7/2

5)Everfast Jockey Chris Landeros Trainer Dale Romans 20/1

6)Hard Belle Jockey Jose Bastista Trainer Jamie Mejia 50/1

7)Maximum Security Jockey Luis Saez Trainer Jason Servis 9/2

8)Bodexpress Jockey Nik Juarez Trainer Gustavo Delgado 30/1

9)Code Of Honor Jockey John Velazquez Trainer Shug McGaughey 3/1

10)Union's Destiny Jockey Leonel Reyes Trainer Juan Avila 30/1

11)Garter and Tie Jockey Jeff Sanchez Trainer Ralph Nicks 15/1
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post #114 of 263 Old 03-28-2019, 12:58 PM
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Yay... I was actually looking over the field right now, and about to post the list. Thanks for saving me the work. 😉 I'll post my thoughts shortly...
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post #115 of 263 Old 03-28-2019, 01:00 PM Thread Starter
Green Broke
 
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Glad to do it.
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post #116 of 263 Old 03-29-2019, 02:11 PM Thread Starter
Green Broke
 
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Florida Derby-

Gonna go ahead and put thoughts up. 1,4,9 are my win contenders. I actually think Hidden Scroll bounces back in a big way. Like Bourbon War as well.

2,7,3 are my mix in on wheels. Good luck everyone. If I see tv coverage other than TVG I will pass on.
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post #117 of 263 Old 03-29-2019, 03:16 PM Thread Starter
Green Broke
 
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NBC sports Saturday 6:00 est
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post #118 of 263 Old 03-30-2019, 11:07 AM
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@aubie I Intended to post sooner, got busy at work. Finally got some time, so... Florida Derby first.

(1) Hidden Scroll - my thought on him hasn't changed. Love this colt and his maiden win. His last race I personally believe was jockey error. Pushing him to keep the lead, in such fast quarter times. Obviously the trainer feels that was a bad ride, as he has opted for a different jockey. He is my winning pick. By the way, the colt he went such fast fractions with, Gladiator King, went on to win his next graded stakes by 4 1/2 lengths.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...tcheson-stakes

(2) Current - 6 races lifetime, 2 wins, 2 third, 2 off the board. Can't ever count out a Pletcher horse, but likely not a win contender. Has raced on both turf and dirt, seems like Pletcher is trying to figure out where he excells. A user for me in the top 4 or 5 but no more.

(3) Harvey Wallbanger - has 5 starts, 2 first, 3 second. Took him 4 starts to break his maiden, he was second three times. Then he won the Holy Bull Stakes back in February. McPeek is a good trainer, can't count his colt out of the top 4 or 5, but again I don't like him to win.

(4) Bourbon War - 4 starts, 2 first,1 second, 1 fourth. Came in a strong closing second in the Fountain of Youth, I think he will like the added distance. A few more strides and he would have caught the win in the FoY, imo. Top 3 finish in this race.

(5) Everfast - 8 starts, 1 first, second, and third. The other 5 starts were off the board. He finished 2nd this year in the Holy Bull, but 8th in the Fountain of Youth. Probably not a contender in the top 4 or 5.

(6) Hard Belle - 13 starts, 1 first, second, and third. Very heavily raced. Not on my list for top 4 or 5.

(7) Maximum Security - 3 starts, 3 wins lifetime. All at Gulfstream Park. Not against this level of competition thought. Not a win contender, but top 4 finisher imo. Like seeing the hometown horses take on the big guys.

(8) Bodexpress - 4 starts, 2 second, no wins yet. Another who has raced exclusively at Gulfstream Park tracks. In this race, probably not a top 4 or 5 finish.

(9) Code of Honor - 4 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 fourth. First in the Fountain of Youth, but almost lost to Bourbon War. Top 4 or 5 for sure, especially with Velasquez up.

(10) Union's Destiny - 4 starts, 1 first, second and third. Was 6th in the Fountain of Youth. Not in my list for top 4 or 5.

(11) Garter and tie - 8 starts, 2 first, second and third. Was 6th in the Holy Bull. Not in my top 5.

To sum it up... 1 to win, also 4,7,9, and maybe throw in 2 or 3 to round out the top 5.
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post #119 of 263 Old 03-30-2019, 12:19 PM Thread Starter
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It ok, certainly worth the wait as I really enjoyed.
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post #120 of 263 Old 03-30-2019, 03:07 PM
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Kept up with the Dubai World Cup Carnival online throughout the morning, some great races. The World Cup didn't disappoint-nice to see how Thunder Snow has matured after his "amusing" Kentucky Derby experience.
How hard does Gunnavera try every time?? I really wish he'd get his Grade 1 win one of these days, but he's always right there.
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