2019 Road To The Kentucky Derby - Page 19 - The Horse Forum
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post #181 of 263 Old 05-03-2019, 02:09 PM
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Gosh @aubie , how was Rachel 10 years ago?! That makes me feel so old.
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post #182 of 263 Old 05-03-2019, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by aubie View Post
In preparation for the Oaks, my favorite

That was the year Mine that Bird came from last to win the Derby, then Rachel Alexandra entered the Preakness and Mine that Bird couldn't beat her, he was second...wonder if I can find video of the Preakness....
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post #183 of 263 Old 05-03-2019, 02:16 PM
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I think I may have posted this before, but here was Rachel at Saratoga after the final race of her career. Bittersweet in that she wasn't headed to the winner's circle, but I was standing almost alone on the rail near the top of the stretch when she was heading back to the barns, and got shivers when she walked passed me.

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post #184 of 263 Old 05-03-2019, 02:41 PM Thread Starter
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It is hard to believe she is 10. These last 10 years we have seen some unusually special horses. And special moments.

That was Mine That Birds year. She beat him in the Preakness and beat the Belmont winner in the Haskell. Mine That Bird was such w weird deal to me all the way around. If Rachel's owners had run her in the Derby he wouldn't even be a story or remembered. He would not get in the Derby today, wouldn't have had enough points.

I like Calvin but at the time was sad Chantal didn't get the chance. MTBs wins came from Canada withs her aboard.

I did think NBC going on and on about his trainer was in poor taste.
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post #185 of 263 Old 05-03-2019, 07:17 PM
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Woohoo Serengeti Empress! My pick
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post #186 of 263 Old 05-03-2019, 08:38 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by cobra View Post
Okay - first breakdown, the Oaks. Have to get this one done first since the race is today.

To me, this is all about the (4) Bellafina. On paper she looks great, 6 wins in 8 starts. Was 2nd in her maiden race. Has won every race since, with 1 exception. And this is what makes me look twice, the only time she has come to Churchill Downs (Breeders cup juvenile fillies last November) she was 4th. 4 of her 6 wins have come at Santa Anita. The first 2 wins were at Del Mar. Can she travel and bring her A game? This race is hers to lose...

(1)Out for a Spin - 5 starts, 3 first, 1 third, 1 fifth. Has won one grade 1 stakes race. The rest were not stakes races.

(2) Chocolate Kisses - 8 starts, 3 first, 1 second, 1 third. 6th in her most recent race, with Out for a Spin, Restless Rider, and Jaywalk finishing 1,2,3 in that race. She did win the Honeybee. She is a come from behind closer, so anything is possible... Loved watching her move to come from way out of it to win the Honeybee.

(3)Lady Apple - 7 starts, 3 first, 2 second, 2 fifth. Had 2 second, 2 fifth place finishes in her 2 yo season. Has won all 3 races this year, all at Oaklawn Park. One of those 3 was a stakes race, where she beat Motion Emotion.

(4) Bellafina - already discussed her above...this is hers to lose, imo.

(5)Flor de La Mar - this filly is super lightly raced. 3 starts, all on 2019, all at Santa Anita. Won her maiden, 5th in a claiming race, then 2nd in the Santa Anita Oaks to Bellafina. That was a 4 horse field. Not sure what to expect from her in her first big field of 14.

(6) Positive Spirit - 7 starts, 2 first, 2 second, 1 third. 2nd most recently in the Gazelle stakes to Always Shopping (not in the Oaks). 8th (last) in the Rachel Alexandra stakes to Serengeti Empress, Liora, Street Band.

(7) Jaywalk - 7 starts, 4 first, 1 second, 1 third. Had an amazing race back in November and beat Bellafina, Serengeti Empress, etc. Hasn't shown the same form after that race. Has been a close second in some. This year, in his two starts he has finished 3rd in the Ashland to Out for a spin and Restless Rider and 4th in the Davona Dale to Jeltrin and Champagne Anyone.

(8) Motion Emotion - 6 starts, 2 first, 2 second. Took 3 tries to break maiden win. 4th and 9th the first 2 races as a 2 yo. 2nd in the Honeybee to Chocolate Kisses, also second in the Fantasy to Lady Apple. Those are her only 2 stakes starts.

(9)Liora - 7 starts, 2 first, 2 second, 1 third, 2 fourth. Second this year in both of her 2 starts. In the Rachel Alexandra to Serengeti Empress, and in the Fair Ground Oaks to Street Band.

(10) Champagne Anyone - 7 starts, 3 first, 3 third, 1 fourth. Most recent, 3rd in the Devona Dale to Jeltrin and Cookie dough. And 1st in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.

(11)Jeltrin - 6 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 third, 2 fourth. Won the Davona Dale and
4th in the Forward Gal this year.

(12)Street Band - 8 starts, 3 first, 2 third. Most recently she won the Fair Ground Oaks, 4th in the Rachel Alexandra.

(13) Serengeti Empress - 7 starts, 4 wins. One 4th, two 7th. Won the Rachel Alexandra, looked awesome. Came back to the Fair Ground Oaks and was last (7th). Was bleeding after the race. If she is in top form, she could be a real contender. Hopefully, they wouldn't run her if she's not in good shape. Absolutely love her breeding. Distorted humor, Bernardini, Seattle Slew.

(14) Restless Rider - 7 starts, 3 first,4 second. Definitely a game little filly. Has been second in her last 3 starts to Out for a Spin (Ashland), Liora (Golden Rod), and
Jaywalk (Breeder cup juvenile). She has only raced once in her 3 yo season, the Ashland April 6th. The race before that was all the way back in November of 2018. Why the long layoff? Will that help or hurt her? Distorted humor, Danzig, Unbridled bloodline.

To sum it up, the (4) should win, baring bad luck at Churchill Downs. I like the (13) if she looks in good condition. Won't know till I see her in paddock. (14) is a user in the top 5. Throw in the (9) and (12) to round out the top 5. Or more likely for me, throw in the (2) as a longshot.

(4) (13) (14) (2) (9) are my final pics...
Great job. You give out a $878.00 exacta
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post #187 of 263 Old 05-03-2019, 08:41 PM Thread Starter
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Woohoo Serengeti Empress! My pick
And it was a good one. $28.00 winner for every $2 bucks you spend. That gets new shoes all day long. Nicely done.
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post #188 of 263 Old 05-03-2019, 09:42 PM
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And it was a good one. $28.00 winner for every $2 bucks you spend. That gets new shoes all day long. Nicely done.
Well, a $2 show bet is usually good for...your next $2 show bet, and maybe a pretzel if you’re lucky like this time

Hoping everyone runs well and comes home safe tomorrow. Tacitus-WOW-Country House/By my Standards/Win Win Win
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post #189 of 263 Old 05-03-2019, 09:58 PM Thread Starter
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I don't know if everyone heard that the horse that clipped heels and flipped is ok, and Manny is ok as well.
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post #190 of 263 Old 05-03-2019, 10:30 PM
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^^So glad for that!!
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