Okay - first breakdown, the Oaks. Have to get this one done first since the race is today.
To me, this is all about the (4) Bellafina. On paper she looks great, 6 wins in 8 starts. Was 2nd in her maiden race. Has won every race since, with 1 exception. And this is what makes me look twice, the only time she has come to Churchill Downs (Breeders cup juvenile fillies last November) she was 4th. 4 of her 6 wins have come at Santa Anita. The first 2 wins were at Del Mar. Can she travel and bring her A game? This race is hers to lose...
(1)Out for a Spin - 5 starts, 3 first, 1 third, 1 fifth. Has won one grade 1 stakes race. The rest were not stakes races.
(2) Chocolate Kisses - 8 starts, 3 first, 1 second, 1 third. 6th in her most recent race, with Out for a Spin, Restless Rider, and Jaywalk finishing 1,2,3 in that race. She did win the Honeybee. She is a come from behind closer, so anything is possible... Loved watching her move to come from way out of it to win the Honeybee.
(3)Lady Apple - 7 starts, 3 first, 2 second, 2 fifth. Had 2 second, 2 fifth place finishes in her 2 yo season. Has won all 3 races this year, all at Oaklawn Park. One of those 3 was a stakes race, where she beat Motion Emotion.
(4) Bellafina - already discussed her above...this is hers to lose, imo.
(5)Flor de La Mar - this filly is super lightly raced. 3 starts, all on 2019, all at Santa Anita. Won her maiden, 5th in a claiming race, then 2nd in the Santa Anita Oaks to Bellafina. That was a 4 horse field. Not sure what to expect from her in her first big field of 14.
(6) Positive Spirit - 7 starts, 2 first, 2 second, 1 third. 2nd most recently in the Gazelle stakes to Always Shopping (not in the Oaks). 8th (last) in the Rachel Alexandra stakes to Serengeti Empress, Liora, Street Band.
(7) Jaywalk - 7 starts, 4 first, 1 second, 1 third. Had an amazing race back in November and beat Bellafina, Serengeti Empress, etc. Hasn't shown the same form after that race. Has been a close second in some. This year, in his two starts he has finished 3rd in the Ashland to Out for a spin and Restless Rider and 4th in the Davona Dale to Jeltrin and Champagne Anyone.
(8) Motion Emotion - 6 starts, 2 first, 2 second. Took 3 tries to break maiden win. 4th and 9th the first 2 races as a 2 yo. 2nd in the Honeybee to Chocolate Kisses, also second in the Fantasy to Lady Apple. Those are her only 2 stakes starts.
(9)Liora - 7 starts, 2 first, 2 second, 1 third, 2 fourth. Second this year in both of her 2 starts. In the Rachel Alexandra to Serengeti Empress, and in the Fair Ground Oaks to Street Band.
(10) Champagne Anyone - 7 starts, 3 first, 3 third, 1 fourth. Most recent, 3rd in the Devona Dale to Jeltrin and Cookie dough. And 1st in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.
(11)Jeltrin - 6 starts, 2 first, 1 second, 1 third, 2 fourth. Won the Davona Dale and
4th in the Forward Gal this year.
(12)Street Band - 8 starts, 3 first, 2 third. Most recently she won the Fair Ground Oaks, 4th in the Rachel Alexandra.
(13) Serengeti Empress - 7 starts, 4 wins. One 4th, two 7th. Won the Rachel Alexandra, looked awesome. Came back to the Fair Ground Oaks and was last (7th). Was bleeding after the race. If she is in top form, she could be a real contender. Hopefully, they wouldn't run her if she's not in good shape. Absolutely love her breeding. Distorted humor, Bernardini, Seattle Slew.
(14) Restless Rider - 7 starts, 3 first,4 second. Definitely a game little filly. Has been second in her last 3 starts to Out for a Spin (Ashland), Liora (Golden Rod), and
Jaywalk (Breeder cup juvenile). She has only raced once in her 3 yo season, the Ashland April 6th. The race before that was all the way back in November of 2018. Why the long layoff? Will that help or hurt her? Distorted humor, Danzig, Unbridled bloodline.
To sum it up, the (4) should win, baring bad luck at Churchill Downs. I like the (13) if she looks in good condition. Won't know till I see her in paddock. (14) is a user in the top 5. Throw in the (9) and (12) to round out the top 5. Or more likely for me, throw in the (2) as a longshot.
(4) (13) (14) (2) (9) are my final pics...
Great job. You give out a $878.00 exacta