2019 Road To The Kentucky Derby - Page 5 - The Horse Forum
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post #41 of 263 Old 03-04-2019, 05:19 PM
Weanling
 
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Found this, thought it was interesting....

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...n-derby-trail/
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post #42 of 263 Old 03-04-2019, 06:26 PM
Weanling
 
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This as well...

https://thoroughbredinsider.com/2019...adjuk43SlLkO9g

I still really like Hidden Scroll, and believe a large part of his poor finish was jocky error during the ride. Time will tell....
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post #43 of 263 Old 03-05-2019, 02:16 PM Thread Starter
Green Broke
 
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Some good points. If going from MSW to maiden claimer is the biggest drop in racing, then going from maiden facing winners for the first time is the biggest jump. Let alone going from maiden to stakes. I mentioned he had a lot going against him. I do think he is talented. Part of the reason I went ga ga over Justify last year wasn't just the talent. He was doing things horses just don't do. What happened to Hidden Scroll is what normally happens to horses.

And I think you are on point about the jock. Joel certainly is a capable jockey no doubt. But he isn't in the top tier to me. Johnny is. One of the very best to ever get a leg up. I mentioned it before the race but leaving him off a ticket is a big no no for me. The (1) wasn't the best horse in the race, but he had the best rider. Had Hidden Scroll had Javier who didn't have a mount, I think he would have done better. Most polls have War Of Will 3rd. As long as he has Tyler Gaffalione up I'm not really interested.

Some on my other board don't pay that much attention to riders and trainer, focusing more on speed and times. That's a way to go. Most handicapping is built around it for sure. I put more weight on what I see visually and connections than most. And in Hidden Scrolls case I'm a big believer in Bill Mott. He trained not only one of my all time favorites but one of the greatest of all time in Cigar. He knows what a good horse is. And Cigar wasn't when he got him as a 4 year old.

The top two horses are running this weekend at Santa Anita. Probably the last time we see that before the Derby as they are both Bobs. The winner will be the Derby favorite.

I have not given up on Hidden Scroll. Florida Derby will go a long way. But he again will be facing not only more experienced horses, but more proven.
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post #44 of 263 Old 03-05-2019, 10:32 PM
Weanling
 
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So... Lots of news tonight. Global Campaign is off the Derby trail due to injury sustained during the Fountain of Youth, where he finished 5th. Link if anyone wants to read about it.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...abbing-quarter

Also, one of the Derby prep races scheduled to be run Saturday will not be run. Not sure if it will be rescheduled, or moved to another track. Santa Anita park is having issues with it's main track and all racing has been suspended indefinitely.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...g-indefinitely

There are a couple Derby preps tomorrow, one in England and one in Ireland. Not familiar with the horses. Will post if anything stands out to me after looking them over.
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post #45 of 263 Old 03-06-2019, 10:18 PM
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Not looking good for cal bred/trained horses this year. Santa Anita isn't looking too good right now.
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post #46 of 263 Old 03-07-2019, 12:45 AM
Weanling
 
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Tampa Bay Derby March 9th
Grade 2 (+50, 20, 10, 5 Derby points)

1) Admire
2) Sir Winston
3) Lord Dragon
4) Dream Maker
5) Well Defined
6) Outshine
7) Win Win Win
8) The Right Path
9) Dunph
10) Tacitus
11) Zenden

Jeff Ruby Steaks @ Turfway Park Mar 9th
Grade 3 (+ 20, 8, 4, 2 Derby points)

1) Dynamic Racer
2) Moonster
3) Five Star General
4) Dabo
5) Baytown Jimbo
6) Skywire
7) Counter Offer
8) Twelfthofneverland
9) Curlin Grey
10) Somelikeithotbrown
11) Speed App

I'll be looking these over and giving my thoughts shortly.....
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post #47 of 263 Old 03-07-2019, 10:43 AM Thread Starter
Green Broke
 
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Will do some digging on those a little later.

I do like seeing Turfway have a big day. But personally don't like it during the day as I enjoy their nighttime racing.
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post #48 of 263 Old 03-07-2019, 08:00 PM Thread Starter
Green Broke
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cobra View Post
Tampa Bay Derby March 9th
Grade 2 (+50, 20, 10, 5 Derby points)

1) Admire
2) Sir Winston
3) Lord Dragon
4) Dream Maker
5) Well Defined
6) Outshine
7) Win Win Win
8) The Right Path
9) Dunph
10) Tacitus
11) Zenden

Jeff Ruby Steaks @ Turfway Park Mar 9th
Grade 3 (+ 20, 8, 4, 2 Derby points)

1) Dynamic Racer
2) Moonster
3) Five Star General
4) Dabo
5) Baytown Jimbo
6) Skywire
7) Counter Offer
8) Twelfthofneverland
9) Curlin Grey
10) Somelikeithotbrown
11) Speed App

I'll be looking these over and giving my thoughts shortly.....
Interested in your Gothom as well. So far I'm all about Instagrand. And speaking of what's going on with Santa Anita what a call now going to New York. And I like Mike to make the ticket as well.
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post #49 of 263 Old 03-07-2019, 08:16 PM
Weanling
 
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Tampa Bay Derby

Mott has the (10) Tacitus. Took him 2 races to break his maiden, the first race he was 4th. Also his first race was a rough one, alot of bumping and such. Even had an objection by one of the jockeys. He has only run twice, lightly raced. Definitely one to watch.

Kathleen O'Connell has the (5) Well Defined. Seven starts, 3 first, 1 second, 1 third. Medaglia D'oro and Storm Cat breeding. Not one to count out.

Victor Barbosa Jr has the (11) Zenden.
3 races, 2 first, one second. One of my top pics. Giants causeway/ storm cat and sharp humor/distorted humor breeding.

Todd Pletcher has the (6) Outshine. This colt won his maiden, dropped back to 5th on his second race (stakes) and then won his third race (claiming). Not sure what to make of him. He has good breeding. AP Indy and Unbridled Song/ Unbridled.

Dale Romans has the (1) Admire. Took him 2 races to win his maiden, and then he placed 5th in a grade 3 stakes. So 1 win, 3 races lifetime. Good post position. Another one I'm not sure what to expect from.

Looking for a long shot to make money on? Look at the (3) or the (8).

Bred by Calumet Farm, the (3) Lord Dragon has 1 first, 2 second, and 1 third from 6 starts. His breeding is awesome - Oxbow/ Awesome again and broken spell/ broken vow/ Unbridled.

The (8) the right path is lightly raced. One first, one second from 2 races lifetime. It's a big jump in competition thought. He is by Always Trouble/ Bernardini/ AP Indy.
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post #50 of 263 Old 03-07-2019, 08:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aubie View Post

Interested in your Gothom as well. So far I'm all about Instagrand. And speaking of what's going on with Santa Anita what a call now going to New York. And I like Mike to make the ticket as well.
Oops, forgot the Gotham. Will post that one, and my thoughts on Jeff Ruby Steaks shortly.

What's going on with the Derby preps scheduled for Santa Anita?
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