This does seem to be a fairly open race, going to be hard to predict. Alot (imo) comes down to jockeys and post position. And of course weather. If it's a wet, muddy course there are some that have shown dislike of those conditions.
(1) War of Will - 9 starts, 3 first 1 second 1 third. Won the Risen Star Stakes over Owendale and Country House, but was 9th in the Louisiana Derby, and was 7th in the Kentucky Derby. He did have a very rough trip in the KD, was wanting to run but trapped inside. He also had traffic issues in the Louisiana Derby. Can he get a good trip? Once again he has the 1 post position. Probably a user in my top 5, but I don't believe a win contender.
(2) Bourbon War - 5 starts, 2 first 1 second 2 fourth. Second in the Fountain of Youth to Code of Honor. Fourth in the Florida Derby to Maximum Security, Bodexpress, and Code of Honor. Nice colt, just don't see him in the top 5 necessarily. Adds blinkers this race...will that help or hurt?
(3) Warrior's Charge - 5 starts, 2 first, 3 third. Has won the last 2 races in a row. They paid to add him to the field, and with how open it is I think that was a smart move. Top 5, but probably not a win contender. Like the breeding - Unbridled and Storm Cat, with Secretariat showing up twice on his sire's side.
(4) Improbable - 6 starts, 3 first, 2 second, 1 fourth. This year 2nd in both the Rebel (Long Range Toddy) and Arkansas Stakes (Omaha Beach). 4th in the Derby, 5th if not for the DQ. Jockey change to Mike Smith will definitely give him his best chance. I do like his breeding, with AP Indy so close. Possibly in my top 5, not a likely win contender imo.
(5)Owendale - 8 starts, 3 first 1 second 1 third. Three races this year, only 2 stakes starts both this year. He was 8th in the Risen Star Stakes (War of Will, Country House) and won the Lexington Stakes over Anothertwistafate (2nd). Not sure he makes my top 5. Not sure he can go more than a mile.
(6) Market King - 8 starts, 1 first, 1 second, 2 third. Was 3rd in the Rebel Stakes to Omaha Beach and Game Winner. Three weeks later was 11th in the Bluegrass. Lukas went on record saying that the colt doesn't like such short turnaround, needs more time, that they were pushing too hard. He's had 5 or 6 weeks this time. Can't ever count Lukas out. A user in top 5, not a win contender.
(7)Alwaysmining - 12 starts, 7 first, 1 third. Has won his last 6 in a row, rather impressively. This is my win pick. Jump in class and competition, but I think he is capable. Bernardini/AP Indy, Storm Bird/Northern Dancer and Unbridled.
(8)Signalman - 7 starts, 2 first 2 second 2 third. Two races this year. Third in the Bluegrass (Vekoma, Win Win Win) and 7th in the Fountain of Youth (Code of Honor, Bourbon War, Vekoma). Not top 5 imo.
(9)Bodexpress - 6 starts, 3 second. Still has not won a race. Second in the Florida Derby to Maximum Security. Was 13th in the Kentucky Derby. Did have interference in the last turn and the stretch. Has Velasquez, can't discount a top 5 finish, but not a win contender.
(10) Everfast - 10 starts, 1 first, 1 second, 1 third. Second in the Holy Bull, 8th in the Fountain of Youth, 9th in the Florida Derby, 5th in the Pat Day mile. Just don't see a top 5 here.
(11) Laughing Fox - 7 starts, 3 first. Was 4th in the Arkansas and 7th in the Rebel. Don't see a top 5 finish here.
(12) Anothertwistafate - 7 starts, 3 first, 2 second. Was second in his 2 stakes races. In the Sunland to Cutting Humor, and in the Lexington to Owendale. Don't see him in the top 5, imo.
(13) Win Win Win - 7 starts, 3 first, 2 second, 1 third. 3rd in the Tampa Bay (Tacitus, Outshine), 2nd in the Bluegrass (Vekoma), 9th in the Kentucky Derby. Can he overcome his post position and finish top 5?
To sum it up...
I definitely have (7) to win. Then it's between (1) (3) (6) (9) (13) to round out the top 5. (1) should definitely be there. (3) and (6) are longshot question marks. (9) I believe will be top 5, especially with Velasquez. (13) is also a question mark for me.
Probably going (1)(3)(6)(7)(9) just for the added longshot. (13) I am still uncertain about...