Preakness talk... - Page 4 - The Horse Forum
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post #31 of 58 Old 05-15-2019, 10:49 PM
Green Broke
 
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Will have thoughts later as well.

But of the bat thinking Bodexpress gets a harder look. Johnny V always does.

And made me think somehow Code Of Honor got lost in the hubbub after the Derby. He ran I good race, seemed to be the improving sort and have not seen or heard anything about him/ why not going in this one.
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post #32 of 58 Old 05-15-2019, 11:20 PM Thread Starter
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@aubie I'm always glad to help you whenever I can.

I agree, Bodexpress gets a second look from me with Velasquez aboard. However, he still has not won any races so while he will likely go in my top 5 I seriously doubt he is capable of winning.

Off the bat, I like what I have seen of Alwaysmining. And he has a decent post position. I will try to find one of his races on video and post it here.

War of Will - bad luck having the 1 spot again. Still likely in my top 5. I'm thinking he will get a cleaner trip in this smaller field. He was being held back alot, then checked due to MS.

Rounding out my initial top 5 with Warrior's Charge and Market King. So my initial thoughts are (1) (3) (6) (7) (9). I plan to break them all down tomorrow, and after a closer look may change my mind on a couple. This is just my initial reaction...
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post #33 of 58 Old 05-15-2019, 11:55 PM
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Noticed that, tough draw again for WOW. If it rains again that will make it worse.
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post #34 of 58 Old 05-16-2019, 11:40 PM
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The Preakness Stakes. NBC has the coverage.

First some general thoughts and then horse by horse. The most wide open Preakness I can remember. Doesn't even feel like a Preakness somehow. Spread is the key here. One way to look at it is the two favorites are the class of the field. But how much did getting here take out of them with so many new shooters.

1)War Of Will- Bad draw, but where they start it's not as bad and may help him save some ground as he appears to be a little distance challenged. I didn't have him in Derby but have to say he showed more than I thought he had. Have to use but can see him not making it again which will help prices.

2)Bourbon War- I'm liking this horse. Not going in Derby helped him her. If you believe in Maximum Security, you kinda have to believe in this one, as he closed into him.

3)Warrior's Challenge- Something is up here. Owners coughed up $150 thousand to enter him. Gets Javier. Cox is a hot trainer, horse seems on the improve. Catch the hunch and use.

4)Improbable- the most talented horse in the field. Gets the best Jockey in the game. Hopefully gets a dry track because he has been a mud bug the last few and doesn't seem to like it. But can also see him being a little tired. Just had a lot of traveling and racing. Can't cut.

5)Owendale- Seems up against it, but has a 98 Beyer that really sticks out here. And finishes well. Have to use.

6)Market King- has a 38 Beyer that also sticks out. For D Wayne. Has Jon up who this again seems like the type he gets in. But realistically don't see making it. But a couple across the board at this price makes him the save the day play. Maybe up for a piece if you have room cause it will be huge.

7)Alwaysmiling- Local horse will be over bet because of it. But this one really fits. Coming in the race improving with each start. Been facing weaker but in the way a good horse does. His numbers says he belongs. Definitely user. Honestly the one I hope does win.

8)Signalman. Love Kenny and he has this horse heading in the right direction. Just not by leaps and bounds which he will need to overcome an 88 best Beyer. Got cut some.

9)Bodexpress- Checked the hardest in the Derby. Gets upgraded to Johny V. Has a 98 Beyer. My eyes say still not enough, but brain says use.

10)Everfast- He isn't, nope.

11)Laughing Fox. Love Steve but can't see

12)Anothertwistoffate- Jose has been a win machine. Not crazy about the horse for some reason, but using defensively.

13)WinWinWin- Can't see it here, seems to find trouble and the 13 is no place to be for that.

Hope this helps in arrangements to get a piece of this one.
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post #35 of 58 Old 05-17-2019, 02:54 PM Thread Starter
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This does seem to be a fairly open race, going to be hard to predict. Alot (imo) comes down to jockeys and post position. And of course weather. If it's a wet, muddy course there are some that have shown dislike of those conditions.

(1) War of Will - 9 starts, 3 first 1 second 1 third. Won the Risen Star Stakes over Owendale and Country House, but was 9th in the Louisiana Derby, and was 7th in the Kentucky Derby. He did have a very rough trip in the KD, was wanting to run but trapped inside. He also had traffic issues in the Louisiana Derby. Can he get a good trip? Once again he has the 1 post position. Probably a user in my top 5, but I don't believe a win contender.


(2) Bourbon War - 5 starts, 2 first 1 second 2 fourth. Second in the Fountain of Youth to Code of Honor. Fourth in the Florida Derby to Maximum Security, Bodexpress, and Code of Honor. Nice colt, just don't see him in the top 5 necessarily. Adds blinkers this race...will that help or hurt?


(3) Warrior's Charge - 5 starts, 2 first, 3 third. Has won the last 2 races in a row. They paid to add him to the field, and with how open it is I think that was a smart move. Top 5, but probably not a win contender. Like the breeding - Unbridled and Storm Cat, with Secretariat showing up twice on his sire's side.


(4) Improbable - 6 starts, 3 first, 2 second, 1 fourth. This year 2nd in both the Rebel (Long Range Toddy) and Arkansas Stakes (Omaha Beach). 4th in the Derby, 5th if not for the DQ. Jockey change to Mike Smith will definitely give him his best chance. I do like his breeding, with AP Indy so close. Possibly in my top 5, not a likely win contender imo.


(5)Owendale - 8 starts, 3 first 1 second 1 third. Three races this year, only 2 stakes starts both this year. He was 8th in the Risen Star Stakes (War of Will, Country House) and won the Lexington Stakes over Anothertwistafate (2nd). Not sure he makes my top 5. Not sure he can go more than a mile.


(6) Market King - 8 starts, 1 first, 1 second, 2 third. Was 3rd in the Rebel Stakes to Omaha Beach and Game Winner. Three weeks later was 11th in the Bluegrass. Lukas went on record saying that the colt doesn't like such short turnaround, needs more time, that they were pushing too hard. He's had 5 or 6 weeks this time. Can't ever count Lukas out. A user in top 5, not a win contender.


(7)Alwaysmining - 12 starts, 7 first, 1 third. Has won his last 6 in a row, rather impressively. This is my win pick. Jump in class and competition, but I think he is capable. Bernardini/AP Indy, Storm Bird/Northern Dancer and Unbridled.


(8)Signalman - 7 starts, 2 first 2 second 2 third. Two races this year. Third in the Bluegrass (Vekoma, Win Win Win) and 7th in the Fountain of Youth (Code of Honor, Bourbon War, Vekoma). Not top 5 imo.


(9)Bodexpress - 6 starts, 3 second. Still has not won a race. Second in the Florida Derby to Maximum Security. Was 13th in the Kentucky Derby. Did have interference in the last turn and the stretch. Has Velasquez, can't discount a top 5 finish, but not a win contender.


(10) Everfast - 10 starts, 1 first, 1 second, 1 third. Second in the Holy Bull, 8th in the Fountain of Youth, 9th in the Florida Derby, 5th in the Pat Day mile. Just don't see a top 5 here.


(11) Laughing Fox - 7 starts, 3 first. Was 4th in the Arkansas and 7th in the Rebel. Don't see a top 5 finish here.



(12) Anothertwistafate - 7 starts, 3 first, 2 second. Was second in his 2 stakes races. In the Sunland to Cutting Humor, and in the Lexington to Owendale. Don't see him in the top 5, imo.


(13) Win Win Win - 7 starts, 3 first, 2 second, 1 third. 3rd in the Tampa Bay (Tacitus, Outshine), 2nd in the Bluegrass (Vekoma), 9th in the Kentucky Derby. Can he overcome his post position and finish top 5?

To sum it up...

I definitely have (7) to win. Then it's between (1) (3) (6) (9) (13) to round out the top 5. (1) should definitely be there. (3) and (6) are longshot question marks. (9) I believe will be top 5, especially with Velasquez. (13) is also a question mark for me.

Probably going (1)(3)(6)(7)(9) just for the added longshot. (13) I am still uncertain about...
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post #36 of 58 Old 05-17-2019, 03:04 PM Thread Starter
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https://youtu.be/__q9lHJa17g Alwaysmining in his most recent race...
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post #37 of 58 Old 05-17-2019, 06:18 PM
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What I like about that race was winning was never the main focus as he was going to win. The jock put him behind horses and let him relax and rate. had him inside and outside moment. Wasn't really asked but went on with it . Nothing but a hand ride but did uncock the stick and put it back there. This was just an education. And not taxing in the least.
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post #38 of 58 Old 05-17-2019, 09:42 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aubie View Post
What I like about that race was winning was never the main focus as he was going to win. The jock put him behind horses and let him relax and rate. had him inside and outside moment. Wasn't really asked but went on with it . Nothing but a hand ride but did uncock the stick and put it back there. This was just an education. And not taxing in the least.

Yeah, that race may as well have been a regular work on the track for all it cost him. They were working on him rating behind horses, which may serve him well in the Preakness. He could have gone straight to the lead and held it the whole race... I really like this colt.
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post #39 of 58 Old 05-17-2019, 09:58 PM
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If I was seeing it correctly, since 1980 there has only been 7 new shooter winners of the Preakness. One of those was Rachel.
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post #40 of 58 Old 05-18-2019, 04:17 PM
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The Clydesdales are at the Preakness.
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