Road to the Derby races - The Horse Forum
 
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post #1 of 7 Old 09-14-2019, 01:18 PM Thread Starter
Weanling
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Tennessee, US
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Road to the Derby races

Making a thread to discuss all the Road to the Kentucky Derby races. Easier to have them in one thread than to start one for every race. Starts today, so here goes....
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post #2 of 7 Old 09-14-2019, 02:17 PM Thread Starter
Weanling
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
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1 Zyramid - 3 starts, 1 first, 1 third.
JOCKEY / Ricardo Santana, Jr.
TRAINER / Steven M. Asmussen

His off the board finish was a 5th place in the G2 Saratoga Special Stakes. The (3) horse Scabbard was 2nd in that race. Not a win contender imo.



2 Letmeno - 2 starts, 1 first, 1 second.
JOCKEY / Calvin H. Borel
TRAINER / Ian R. Wilkes

Won maiden, 2nd in black type stakes race. Possible top 5. Not win contender imo.




3 Scabbard - 2 starts, 1 first, 1 second.
JOCKEY / Corey J. Lanerie
TRAINER / Eddie Kenneally

Won maiden, 2nd In G2 Saratoga Special Stakes. Likely top 5. Possible top 3.



4 Rowdy Yates - 3 starts, 2 first, 1 second.
JOCKEY / Tyler Baze
TRAINER / Steven M. Asmussen

Won maiden, 2nd in G3 stakes, won black type stakes. Top 5 imo.



5 Automate - 3 starts, 1 first.
JOCKEY / Florent Geroux
TRAINER / J. Keith Desormeaux

Took 2 tries to win maiden, was 6th the first time. Also 7th in a black type stakes. Not too 5 imo.


6 Flute Maker - 2 starts, 1 first.
JOCKEY / Jose L. Ortiz
TRAINER / Kenneth G. McPeek

Took 2 tries to win maiden, was 5th first race. Late bloomer? One to watch and see what happens...



7 Juggernaut - 1 start, won.
JOCKEY / James Graham
TRAINER / J. Keith Desormeaux

Won his maiden easily. One to watch. Top 5 imo, possible top 3 or win contender.



8 Dennis' Moment - 2 starts, 1 win.
JOCKEY / Irad Ortiz, Jr.
TRAINER / Dale L. Romans

This boy had some bad luck in his first race, tight quarters, bumped and clipped heels, lost jockey and didn't finish race. His second, he won by 19 lengths easily. Definitely my pick to win.


9 Lebda - 3 starts, 2 first, 1 second.
JOCKEY / Trevor McCarthy
TRAINER / Claudio A. Gonzalez

Was 2nd in his first start, won his second and then a claiming race. Interesting to see how he handles a step up in company. Possible top 5.



10 January Won - 1 start, 1 win.
JOCKEY / Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
TRAINER / Kenneth G. McPeek

Won his maiden, love his breeding. Let's see how he handles a jump in class. Possible top 5. Should like the distance.


(8) to win, (7) and (3) to round out top 3, (10) and (4) to fill top 5. Just my thoughts, it is difficult looking at young horses...
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post #3 of 7 Old 02-17-2020, 10:56 PM Thread Starter
Weanling
 
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https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...ed-at-oaklawn/

Not specifically a Derby contender, although her connections were considering the Derby as a possible start. She was an incredible mover, really impressive....sad she is gone way too soon.
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post #4 of 7 Old 02-18-2020, 11:27 AM
Green Broke
 
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I'm sad about her, but have learned over the years that the really big, Amazonian fillies don't last long, especially when raced early and I will no longer let myself get attached. Zenyatta seems to have been the exception, but they took a ton of time with her before they started running her much.
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post #5 of 7 Old 02-22-2020, 11:26 AM Thread Starter
Weanling
 
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And now, Bast is retired due to soundness issues. Also, AP Indy passed away. What a weekend...
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post #6 of 7 Old 02-29-2020, 12:43 PM Thread Starter
Weanling
 
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Road to the Oaks race today, the Davona Dale.

Entries:

1 Chart

2 Dream Marie

3 Emily's Oasis

4 Nikki and Papa

5 Reluctant Bride

6 Spice is Nice

7 Bayerness

8 Addilyn

9 Tonalist's Shape

My thoughts on this one, in brief....

9 is the clear favorite, won all 4 races including a gr3. She clearly has the most experience, and the best race record.

The 1 horse has only one start. Will be interesting to see how she progresses. She overcome a rough trip and won her first time out.

The 6 also has only one start, and 1 win. Nice trip, won easily. Bernardini baby being ridden by Velasquez. One to watch for sure.


The 3 is an American Pharoah filly. She is prettily heavily raced. 5 starts as a 2 yo. 1 first, 1 second, 2 third, 1 fourth. Be interesting to see how she matures as a 3 yo.

The 7 is 2 for 2. Hasn't been in a graded race yet. Bayern (wild again/icecapade) and Storm cat breeding. Interesting to see how she does against this level of competition.

The 2 has 5 starts. Took her 2 tries to break her maiden, but she's won the last 3 straight. No graded races yet. By Graydar/ Unbridled Song/Unbridled. And Curling/Mr Prospector and Storm cat on the other side. One to watch also.

The 4 has one start, one third place finish, in a gr3 race. The 9 won that race. She did good for her first start in stakes competition. Mineshaft and Grand Slam breeding.

The 8 has eight starts. One win, 3 second.
She is very heavily raced for a 3 yo. I do like her breeding. But her record doesn't indicate a likely winner, or top 3. Malibu Moon/Smart Strike and Curling/Ap Indy.

The 5 has 2 starts, won her maiden. 6th on her 2nd race gr2.

Bottom line....

The 9 is the one to beat. I also really like the 6, never count out Velasquez. And the 2, she's won the last 3 races and I love her breeding. And the 7 is two for two. The 1 and 3 are also ones to watch... So 9,6,2,7. Maybe throw in 1 & 3...
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post #7 of 7 Old 02-29-2020, 05:56 PM Thread Starter
Weanling
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
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Fountain of youth: gonna make this short and sweet. 5, 6, 9, 10, 11....
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