I recently had a wake up call. Arizona has very few cases. On top of that, I'm in a location that is fairly remote with the average property being around 5 acres.
Flagstaff which is about 50 or so miles to the East had only one confirmed case a few days ago. Then they decided to open up a drive through testing site.
The graph has been going straight up since. Today, after 190 tests being done, there are 18 confirmed cases. That's 9% (as if yall couldn't do that math:)
So if you are in a group of ten, extrapolation would suggest one of those 10 may be positive.
And for me, as Dr. Brilliant claimed (who is 75 YO), positives over 70YO have a death rate of 1 out of 7.
So if it's played down, the economy will absolutely bounce back big time. All us old people who are dragging the economy down will be no more.
The government will be looking for places to spend all the SSI funds pilling up spilling over the coffers. And companies, states, counties, and the gov will be relieved from paying all those retirement payments.
I've been relaxed with a false sense of minimal concern for my area. But only because AZ has done very little testing.
My view is that this thing may be silently spreading right underneath our noses. Certainly has been in Flagstaff.
The 650 thousand world wide annual deaths from flu could turn into millions.
If people are tested, they can know to self isolate and the rest can move about more. But if people don't know, and they are positive, they're happily bouncing along with others being infected.
By all accounts testing and isolation in other countries is what "flattened" the vertical curve that is occurring in Flagstaff, AZ. https://coconino.az.gov/2294/COVID-19-Information
I certainly don't think people should panic and go wild eyed willy nilly but it does worry me when people suggest various reasons why we should not be quite so concerned.
That's my spiel. Thank you.
Edit: Maybe I've missed it, but I've yet to read an account where anybody with credentials and expertise in this field is in anyway relaxed. Screenshot_2020-03-24 Williams, AZ Coronavirus Information - Safety Updates, News and Tips - The.jpg