Why I Gotta Trot - Page 333 - The Horse Forum
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post #3321 of 3485 Old 03-20-2020, 04:45 AM
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It makes me feel so discouraged that people have such ugly reactions. Hitting a nurse in a shop. What's the world coming to? And why do we have to share it with abusive people like that?

Amore is looking fine! As is Hero, obviously. Interesting to look at a comparison Cushings horse!

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post #3322 of 3485 Old 03-20-2020, 03:19 PM
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It makes me feel so discouraged that people have such ugly reactions. Hitting a nurse in a shop. What's the world coming to? And why do we have to share it with abusive people like that?

Rather than think the person was just basically mean, I would tend to think the person must be somewhat mentally unstable. Plus, there are many people even in the remote area where I live that are scared to death of C-19.


So if the offending person was scared and felt the nurse had left the hospital in the same attire the nurse had perhaps used in proximity of a C-19 case, then the person may well have fallen off the end of the proverbial rocker.


Of course who knows whether the nurse was going or coming. For myself, I assume than any nurse coming in proximity of known C-19 would be sterilized or use a change of scrubs before leaving for home.


But someone that is already borderline, might not reason that out.


It is a bit of a scary time.



I will be purchasing a copper fitting to carry in my pocket at my next hardware visit.




Just offering another perspective from what I read.
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post #3323 of 3485 Old 03-24-2020, 05:34 PM Thread Starter
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After reading a bbc article on covid I have been doing more reading. It said that Italy is currently reporting all deaths in hospitals with coronavirus cases as covid deaths. What??

I am finding that my relatives are beginning to feel very stressed so I have been trying to bring some perspective.
We have had 650 or so deaths in the US from covid and extreme measures to control it.
This year we have had around 23,000 deaths from flu including 149 children and 5 children in the past couple weeks. Our normal flu season deaths are around 3,800 a month.

Covid is not the flu but we are a large country and a lot of people die each year normally. Especially from respiratory viruses. It may be true that with a novel virus we have no immunity. The flu virus mutates each year to confound our vaccines and all the ventilator cases I had this year had been vaccinated.

Italy has had an issue they have studies on with increasing deaths from flu each year. In the past couple flu seasons 25,000 deaths per year. This year add covid to it and there is a huge crisis.

Covid cannot be compared to the flu because there is no data. We also have no data for worldwide flu mortality rates. The 0.1% mortality rate is from the CDC and relates to the US only.

Italy in recent studies has had a 40% mortality rate for ventilator patients with ARDS. In the US rates are as low as 19% with Washington state being higher than most at 38%. Washinton has also had a lot of Covid deaths.

In the 2009 H1N1 outbreak 12,469 people died of the virus in a year. Worldwide about a half million. That is more than 1,000 a month in the US but really most occurred during the fall and winter flu season.

We are expirimenting with containing a disease outbreak. There are many unknowns. How will fear and isolation affect suicide and overdose rates? We have seen an uptick in my area. What about violence? In my state last I heard we were backed up about 1,500 background checks for guns. Interesting times.

I hope everyone will balance fear and stress with facts and reason. Don't let numbers in isolation scare you too much.
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post #3324 of 3485 Old 03-24-2020, 05:41 PM Thread Starter
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I apologize for spelling errors in the previous post. Difficult to type on my tiny phone.
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post #3325 of 3485 Old 03-24-2020, 06:09 PM
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A friend of ours is in serious danger of dying from coronavirus. He had a heart attack a few years back and lost 30% of his heart capacity. He is overweight and older than me. A very nice guy who would give you the shirt off his back but who hates hospitals and didn't go in until he had collapsed at home. He is on a respirator but the doctors are very concerned. Without the virus, he might have 10 more years of life. They have warned the family that recovery is not likely.

Yet....if you destroy how most people make a living, what then? I bought hay this morning and was glad to see they were open. I don't have a place to store large amounts of hay. If it stops coming in (much from California), a lot of Arizona horses will die. But farms need machinery and transportation and truckers need food and tires and....our economy isn't built to allow millions to live without interaction.

Several extended family members may not have a job to go back to much longer. My oldest daughter will be laid off if the airlines go under. The service economy disappears if there is no one to serve. My pastor freaked when I pointed out our population in America grows by 2 million a year and that a million deaths would only cut out growth by 50%. He doesn't always appreciate how an ex-military guy looks at things. Most of my friends have elevated risks - older, many overweight, several with heart and lung issues. Each death individually is tragic. But it goes back to the eternal question, "How safe is safe?" Are 40,000 deaths driving acceptable? We've accepted 10-20,000 flu deaths for years. Would ten times that number be acceptable for the first year of a novel virus? And what happens if you try, as many governors are, to keep millions in suspended animation for months?

Tough questions and no easy answers.

PS: My youngest daughter (in the military) had her transfer put on hold 10 days ago, then resumed last Friday. She is in Texas now and has been put in some sort of 14 day quarantine along with others arriving.

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post #3326 of 3485 Old 03-24-2020, 06:30 PM
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We've accepted 10-20,000 flu deaths for years. Would ten times that number be acceptable for the first year of a novel virus? And what happens if you try, as many governors are, to keep millions in suspended animation for months?
The problem is that as far as I know, the people dying from the flu yearly are dying despite medical professionals doing everything possible to save them (stupid insurance, bad choice of treatments, etc non-withstanding). However, as this pandemic sweeps through areas, people are dying because there isn't enough stuff to treat them with. Someone who may have recovered if they were placed on a vent is dying because there isn't one to put them on. Not only is that terrible for the individual and their family, I cannot imagine how awful it must be for the medical staff who have to decide who gets saved and who doesn't.


My MIL died from respiratory complications of the flu several years ago and it was horrible. However, trying to imagine how much worse it would have been had the ICU doctor told us sorry, your 82 yo MIL doesn't get a ventilator because we feel this 46 yo other patient is higher priority/has a higher chance of survival/etc is beyond comprehension. That is what the suspended animation is hoping to stop.


Is losing your (general you) job and seeing all you have worked for potentially disappear worse than being dead?

Tough questions for sure.


Very sorry about your friend in the hospital. Hope there is some kind of miracle and he is able to recover.



@gottatrot I hope you are able to take care of yourself as well as those you are caring for at work. are you working crazy hours now I would think or has the virus not made it to you locally yet?
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post #3327 of 3485 Old 03-24-2020, 07:30 PM Thread Starter
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Sorry about your friend @bsms . I hope he will be ok.
I do not want to sound callus or minimize anything but someone with that poor cardiac function in my experience does not have ten years left even if he is lucky enough to not catch any viruses. More like two.
Hopefully he can have another year or two with some quality.

We have not had cases of covid here yet so more nurses have been on call instead of working. The doctors are keeping the census low and send even suspected covid home if they are not very ill.

In the US no one is making decisions about who should live or die. I hope that will never happen. We have good protocols for respiratory failure. Every death is a tragedy and unfortunately many have followed poor diets, smoked or done drugs and made themselves more likely to die if a new disease comes out.

I hope soon they will decide it is fine to use regular droplet precautions for covid and the shortages of needed supplies will improve. The virus has a possibility of becoming aerosolized in rare circumstances but is less able to do so than the flu virus. Regular masks should be fine, no gowns. As infectious as the flu is, this works for the flu.

Although it sounds nice to have more "basic" vents available or multiple people per vent, that will not help. Ventilators require individualized settings based on size and health of the patient. ARDS requires special settings. Only qualified staff can run vents and they will limit how many can be used.
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post #3328 of 3485 Old 03-24-2020, 09:19 PM
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I recently had a wake up call. Arizona has very few cases. On top of that, I'm in a location that is fairly remote with the average property being around 5 acres.


Flagstaff which is about 50 or so miles to the East had only one confirmed case a few days ago. Then they decided to open up a drive through testing site.


The graph has been going straight up since. Today, after 190 tests being done, there are 18 confirmed cases. That's 9% (as if yall couldn't do that math:)


So if you are in a group of ten, extrapolation would suggest one of those 10 may be positive.


And for me, as Dr. Brilliant claimed (who is 75 YO), positives over 70YO have a death rate of 1 out of 7.


So if it's played down, the economy will absolutely bounce back big time. All us old people who are dragging the economy down will be no more.



The government will be looking for places to spend all the SSI funds pilling up spilling over the coffers. And companies, states, counties, and the gov will be relieved from paying all those retirement payments.


I've been relaxed with a false sense of minimal concern for my area. But only because AZ has done very little testing.


My view is that this thing may be silently spreading right underneath our noses. Certainly has been in Flagstaff.


The 650 thousand world wide annual deaths from flu could turn into millions.


If people are tested, they can know to self isolate and the rest can move about more. But if people don't know, and they are positive, they're happily bouncing along with others being infected.


By all accounts testing and isolation in other countries is what "flattened" the vertical curve that is occurring in Flagstaff, AZ. https://coconino.az.gov/2294/COVID-19-Information


I certainly don't think people should panic and go wild eyed willy nilly but it does worry me when people suggest various reasons why we should not be quite so concerned.


That's my spiel. Thank you.


Edit: Maybe I've missed it, but I've yet to read an account where anybody with credentials and expertise in this field is in anyway relaxed.



Screenshot_2020-03-24 Williams, AZ Coronavirus Information - Safety Updates, News and Tips - The.jpg

Last edited by Hondo; 03-24-2020 at 09:26 PM.
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post #3329 of 3485 Old 03-24-2020, 10:17 PM
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Ok more spiel.......


From my reading, the big thing that concern me is the asymptomatic spreading of the virus. With the regular flu, at least in my experience, you know darn well you are sick and anyone that sees you can tell from looking at you. We automatically stay away.


With the Covid-19 this doesn't seem to always be the case. Maybe not with 'conventional' flu either but my read is that asymptomatic spread of 'regular' flu hasn't been a problem.


With Covid-19, anybody that has not been tested absolutely does not know they are not positive. I may be infected. I have not been tested. That goes for everybody in my understanding.


So to compare Covid-19 to regular flu may be a monumental error.
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post #3330 of 3485 Old 03-24-2020, 10:22 PM
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"The graph has been going straight up since. Today, after 190 tests being done, there are 18 confirmed cases. That's 9% (as if yall couldn't do that math:) / So if you are in a group of ten, extrapolation would suggest one of those 10 may be positive." - @Hondo

Only if the testing is being done on random individuals rather than people seeking to be tested.

But yes, it IS going to spread. And a number of people WILL die, and my wife & I are over 60. Most of our friends are older than us, too! A lot of social distancing can be done in Arizona without much effort. I was rarely within 6' of anyone while shopping today (hay #1, but also coffee, milk and some pain killers for my back). Probably less than 2 minutes total. OTOH, this is such a good time to avoid cities if one can! NYC seems to be half of the US cases.

Tough times ahead regardless of what decisions are made, and there isn't any good data to make decision-making easy.

BTW - the guy I know in the hospital doesn't exactly hang around in bars, go to concerts or do Spring Break on the beach. He lives a pretty quiet life without a lot of outside contact too, and he's fighting for his life. My wife and/or I may be next. No way to know. I confess I'm glad I don't have to decide how we all should proceed. I'm praying for those who do.

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