If you walked up to me and asked if I had a barrel saddle that would fit you (I flip used saddles for a side gig and a hobby) - I'd suggest a 14. I'd also suggest you try a 14.5 and a 13.5. Like boots (Or jeans, or anything else), different makers have different fits. A size 8.5 in an Ariat with a pointy toe is not the same fit as an 8.5 Lucchese with a square toe or an 8.5 Boulet with a round toe.
Different swells make a saddle feel different too, then there's the depth of the seat, position of the stirrups that can make the fit feel different or not be appropriate or comfortable. Like boots (And probably not something you consciously think about when you go looking for a new pair of boots), there are just tons of variables to take into account.
I'd start with that size range and 'sit' a few on a stand while keeping in mind how one fits on a static piece of furniture or a stand is not going to be quite the same with a dynamic living creature under it.
Also, to give you an example of why sit the saddle and consider sizing up or down - I have a 16 SRS barrel saddle I ride on Sarge (Because the tree is wider). I LIKE how it feels ON him, but on the stand? Uhm. Yah. Nah. Not really feeling it... ON the horse it was different. It's a good fit for me in that brand, though a 15.5 is what I'm more comfortable with in the SRS saddles.
I ride a 15" Saddlesmith Connie Combs on Trigger.
I have a 14.5 Billy Cook (Sulphur OK made) that I've ridden on Gina and IT FITS... and there should be NO WAY in hades my big butt can ride a 14.5 - but it's all in how the seat and the swells are made, where the stirrups are in relation to my natural posture in the saddle. They may not LOOK very different from one another but small changes in angles and sizes of swells and the seat add up to big differences.
Hope that helps!
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